文 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/current_storms/wp012010.wrn
圖 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp012010.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.3N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.5N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.9N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 110.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TD 01W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEPICTED ON A
181341Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH AMSU-B CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE IN THE MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TD 01W IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AROUND THE STR SUPPORTING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS, AND IS NOT HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR IS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, AND WILL KEEP TD 01W
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL STR INTO CENTRAL THAILAND AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL
NOT HAVE AMPLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BY LANDFALL; WITH INTENSITY REACHING
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE CON-
SENSUS TRACK SPEEDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SPEED OF TD 01W. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
--
(C)【分組討論區】 大家好 雲圖顯示 【板主:zonslan/Jasy/tytony】
>國家研究院 今天是個晴朗的天氣 □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>Academy 最適合出門約會了! □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>EarthEnviron \● □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>TY_Research > □□□□□□□□□□□□中央氣象局
大氣 ●大氣科學板 ψQSWEET ∥ MTSAT 紅外線雲圖 03/22/2009 21:58
--
圖 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp012010.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.3N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.5N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.9N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 110.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TD 01W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEPICTED ON A
181341Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH AMSU-B CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE IN THE MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TD 01W IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AROUND THE STR SUPPORTING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS, AND IS NOT HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR IS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, AND WILL KEEP TD 01W
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL STR INTO CENTRAL THAILAND AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL
NOT HAVE AMPLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BY LANDFALL; WITH INTENSITY REACHING
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE CON-
SENSUS TRACK SPEEDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SPEED OF TD 01W. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
--
(C)【分組討論區】 大家好 雲圖顯示 【板主:zonslan/Jasy/tytony】
>國家研究院 今天是個晴朗的天氣 □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>Academy 最適合出門約會了! □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>EarthEnviron \● □□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□
>TY_Research > □□□□□□□□□□□□中央氣象局
大氣 ●大氣科學板 ψQSWEET ∥ MTSAT 紅外線雲圖 03/22/2009 21:58
--
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