JTWC路徑圖 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp042010.gif
180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO
WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT
THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
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180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO
WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT
THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
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