18W - 颱風討論

Elma · 2018-08-07

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台風第14号 (ヤギ)

平成30年08月08日13時10分発表

https://imgur.com/a/YzoHUXo 08月08日15時 5日預測圖

https://imgur.com/upload 08月08日12時預測圖(jma好樣還沒畫好)

https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/1814.html

<08日12時の実況>

大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 19度25分(19.4度)
東経 132度55分(132.9度)
進行方向、速さほとんど停滞
中心気圧 994hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南側 500km(270NM)
北側 220km(120NM)

<09日12時の予報>

強さ -
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 21度05分(21.1度)
東経 134度00分(134.0度)
進行方向、速さ北北東ゆっくり
中心気圧 994hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

---------------------------------------------

JTWC

https://imgur.com/a/SEgsSp8

沖繩行

Tropical Depression 18W (Eighteen) Warning #03
Issued at 07/0900Z

JMA有升格的話是日本命名的摩羯

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1818web.txt

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.8N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.7N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.1N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 132.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z
AND 080900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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颱風