2114 璨樹 - 颱風討論

JTWC 第5報

Typhoon CHANTHU

As of 06:00 UTC Sep 07, 2021:

Location: 16.1°N 135.7°E

Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb

Environmental Pressure: N/A

Radius of Circulation: N/A

Radius of Maximum wind: N/A

JTWC 第5報路徑圖:https://i.imgur.com/WzfEuHr.gif

GFS 0700Z 系集:https://i.imgur.com/5wpaeR5.png

EC 0700Z 系集:https://i.imgur.com/EvL2OZy.png

風切圖:https://i.imgur.com/BQAiB53.gif

輻散圖:https://i.imgur.com/QihQd1i.gif

海溫圖:https://i.imgur.com/pBgMTXn.png


01.JTWC 對璨樹目前所處環境給了 Highly Favorable (非常好)的評價

02.模式們對璨樹未來48小時的路徑看法沒有明顯分歧。但是對於

璨樹48小時之後的路徑沒有共識。當璨樹在台灣附近時,一派認為沿台灣東部北上

,另一派則認為璨樹會往台灣南部前進。

CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST THROUGH TAU
48 IS HIGH, WITH A 100NM SPREAD OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 48. GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK, BUT
OVERALL ALL MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.
THEREAFTER THINGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT TAU 96, THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM AND HWRF TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF TAIWAN, WHILE THE UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE, ECMWF AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
TAIWAN, LEADING TO A 430NM SPREAD AT TAU 48.

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