90W TCFA - 颱風討論

原文 http://ppt.cc/8pCD
預測圖 http://ppt.cc/IPyr

WTPN21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 148.2E TO 12.0N 143.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ADDITIONAL
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE 021210Z ASCAT PASS. A 021609Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//
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