90W TCFA - 颱風討論

HE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435
NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF
THE
SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE
NORTHEAST.
A 280546Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION
AND THE IMPROVED SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW
(10-15 KNOTS)
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W
WILL REACH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
OKINAWA,
WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL
SHOW 90W
BECOMING A TD WITHIN 24HRS, WITH THE ECMWF AND JGSM
FOLLOWING
SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.



https://imgur.com/a/2D6WQAS


原本各模式都不看好會發展的系統

現在看來有機會在接近那霸的時候增強為輕度颱風

也將是今年第一個可能侵襲韓國的熱帶系統

臺灣受他引進的西南風影響

未來一個禮拜就不會那麼熱了，還會下一點午後雷雨


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