WTPN21 PGTW 132130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
250 NM RADIUS OF 8.0N 132.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN MICRONESIA FOR
OVER 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.2 E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131211Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH CENTER
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING LLCC IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A
131722Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HELPING TO PROVIDE EXHAUST
INTO THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
民答那峨東方
美軍預測目前西轉西北西
HKO也有反應
此 外 ， 南 海 中 部 及 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 氣 壓 頗 低
--
All Comments