94W TCFA / GW - 颱風討論

Tom · 2018-07-17

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美軍已發TCFA

代表美軍認為一天內有機會增強為TS

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(稍後補上簡單重點翻譯)

WTPN21 PGTW 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 128.3E TO 23.3N 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 128.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.

經由衛星影像分析出旋轉中心大概位在北緯19.3度、東經128.1度，朝北北西移動

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 127.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH POCKETS OF PERSISTING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT.A 170746Z MHS89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST LOCATED OVER IT. A 170105Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS
LOCATED TO THE PERIPHERY, NOT YET WRAPPING IN.

THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OR SLIGHTLY
EAST BEFORE HEADING NORTH AND INTENSIFYING. IN THE LATER TAUS THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

這個擾動具有良好的赤道向流出、低垂直風切、暖SST
模式指出此擾動會先向北或稍微偏向北北東移動後再向北移
之後再繼續增強並往西北移動
目前最大風速大概15~20kts，中心最低氣壓估計為1007mb

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181000Z.//
NNNN

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http://i.imgur.com/ES8Xl8W.jpg

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/b.html

熱帯低気圧
平成30年07月17日22時10分発表

<17日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 18度25分(18.4度)
東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<18日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域沖縄の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
東経 129度35分(129.6度)
進行方向、速さ北ゆっくり
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

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颱風