95W TCFA GW - 颱風討論

https://goo.gl/9y90bE
http://imgur.com/a/iiMkp

WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 117.0E TO 19.1N 111.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250405Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 116.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A
250646 MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ INDICATE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH APPROXIMATELY 10
KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IS
PRESENT AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ANTICIPATED TRACK IS
NORTHWESTWARD AND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COUPLED
WITH A PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
NNNN


http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

熱帯低気圧
平成28年07月25日22時10分 発表

<25日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 17度10分(17.2度)
東経 115度00分(115.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<26日09時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 17度35分(17.6度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<26日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
東経 111度00分(111.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)




風切不強，局部外露的LLCC將逐漸改善，
加上寧靜已久的南海累積的超高海溫，環境優良，颱風旺季似乎要開始了。

--