WTPN21 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 118.2E TO 19.8N 116.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. A 101029Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C).
THERE ARE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111500Z
http://imgur.com/a/3svCw
目前JTWC的定位在15.0N 118E
以時速25公里的速度朝北北西移動
發展環境良好
垂直風切弱(5~10 KTS )
高層外流輻散良好
海溫大約攝氏29~31度
中央氣象局和日本氣象廳皆已升格為T.D.
目前看來這個系統未來是有可能發展為輕度颱風的
EC與NCEP皆預報會朝香港以東(大概是汕尾的位置)移動
沒意外的話將是今年第一個有外圍環流影響到臺灣的熱帶系統
--
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 118.2E TO 19.8N 116.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. A 101029Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C).
THERE ARE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111500Z
http://imgur.com/a/3svCw
目前JTWC的定位在15.0N 118E
以時速25公里的速度朝北北西移動
發展環境良好
垂直風切弱(5~10 KTS )
高層外流輻散良好
海溫大約攝氏29~31度
中央氣象局和日本氣象廳皆已升格為T.D.
目前看來這個系統未來是有可能發展為輕度颱風的
EC與NCEP皆預報會朝香港以東(大概是汕尾的位置)移動
沒意外的話將是今年第一個有外圍環流影響到臺灣的熱帶系統
--
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