96W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 96W TCFA

壞消息是：
JTWC 認為 96W 在 24 小時內成颱的機率很高。
目前大約在馬尼拉正東方 570 海里處。<即1055.65公里>
移動速度 15 節。<即 27.78kph = 7.72m/s>

好消息是：
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9617.gif
▲ 目前是一路向西。發不發海警就看中央氣象局了。

原文如下：
==============================================================================
WTPN21 PGTW 240100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 130.0E TO 16.8N 122.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY
570 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED AROUND AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 231927Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND ALSO DEPICTS BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SPLIT AS TO
WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250100Z.//
NNNN
==============================================================================

◇ 網址：
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9617.gif
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9617web.txt

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