MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.3N 146.7E TO 7.1N 138.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9810.gif
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVE-
LOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212300Z.
9810031806 23N1566E 15
9810031812 24N1559E 15
9810031818 25N1552E 15
9810031900 26N1543E 15
9810031906 25N1533E 20
9810031912 23N1522E 20
9810031918 28N1509E 20
9810032000 33N1498E 20
9810032006 39N1487E 20
9810032012 43N1471E 20
9810032018 46N1456E 20
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9810web.txt
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.3N 146.7E TO 7.1N 138.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9810.gif
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVE-
LOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212300Z.
9810031806 23N1566E 15
9810031812 24N1559E 15
9810031818 25N1552E 15
9810031900 26N1543E 15
9810031906 25N1533E 20
9810031912 23N1522E 20
9810031918 28N1509E 20
9810032000 33N1498E 20
9810032006 39N1487E 20
9810032012 43N1471E 20
9810032018 46N1456E 20
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9810web.txt
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