國外也注意到聖帕持續很長一段的雙眼牆觀測
以下是NRL(Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA)
的一些看法,其中聖帕內眼牆是否完全崩潰,在強度上可能也些
有不同的變化.其中Katrina就是很好的例子
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Sepat provides another stunning example of the quandary facing the TC
warning community.
1. Double eyewalls create a secondary wind max, potentially at a much
larger radius than the original single eyewall.
2. If the inner eye collapses, the radius of max winds makes a step jump
to a much larger radius.
3. Even if the inner eye does not collapse, it typically becomes much
weaker.
In both scenarios, the secondary eyewall and its associated high winds
present a radically expanded wind field for those in its path during
landfall. Coastal warnings, preparations and the expectations of all
folks in the landfall region must realize that max winds will NOT be
contained within the "typical" small inner core that encompasses 10s of
km, but now can be multiple times larger in size.
Hurricane Katrina is the classic case, since it was in double eyewall
mode at landfall and did NOT collapse the inner eye AND shrink the 2nd
eyewall back to replace the inner eye prior to landfall.
Thus, not only are we faced with the usual landfall timing and max
intensity dilemmas, our need has now advanced to "what eyewall cycle
stage will the storm be in at landfall"? This presents fascinating
opportunities for research efforts on multiple fronts.
Best wishes to our friends in Taiwan.
--
以下是NRL(Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA)
的一些看法,其中聖帕內眼牆是否完全崩潰,在強度上可能也些
有不同的變化.其中Katrina就是很好的例子
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sepat provides another stunning example of the quandary facing the TC
warning community.
1. Double eyewalls create a secondary wind max, potentially at a much
larger radius than the original single eyewall.
2. If the inner eye collapses, the radius of max winds makes a step jump
to a much larger radius.
3. Even if the inner eye does not collapse, it typically becomes much
weaker.
In both scenarios, the secondary eyewall and its associated high winds
present a radically expanded wind field for those in its path during
landfall. Coastal warnings, preparations and the expectations of all
folks in the landfall region must realize that max winds will NOT be
contained within the "typical" small inner core that encompasses 10s of
km, but now can be multiple times larger in size.
Hurricane Katrina is the classic case, since it was in double eyewall
mode at landfall and did NOT collapse the inner eye AND shrink the 2nd
eyewall back to replace the inner eye prior to landfall.
Thus, not only are we faced with the usual landfall timing and max
intensity dilemmas, our need has now advanced to "what eyewall cycle
stage will the storm be in at landfall"? This presents fascinating
opportunities for research efforts on multiple fronts.
Best wishes to our friends in Taiwan.
--
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